The Money Brief #10 - 22nd June 2026

Some weeks the headlines tell you one thing and the detail tells you another. This was one of those weeks. Oil tumbled, house prices supposedly jumped, and the Bank of England held steady while quietly shifting underneath. Grab a coffee. Let me translate.

On Thursday, the Bank of England held interest rates at 3.75%. On the surface, nothing happened. It is the fourth hold in a row, and almost everyone expected it.

Look closer and the picture is shifting. The decision was a 7-2 vote, with two of the nine rate-setters now wanting to raise rates to 4%. Back in April, only one did. The hawks, the people pushing for higher rates to tame inflation, are growing in number.

That matters because it confirms a turn we flagged last week. For most of this year, the only question was when rates would fall. Now the question is whether they hold, or even rise. Inflation sits at 2.8%, cooler than the Bank feared, which argues against a hike. But it is still above the 2% target, and the Bank expects it to climb again later this year as the energy price cap rises in July. That argues against a cut.

Here is the twist. The Bank held partly because of the energy threat from the Middle East. Within 48 hours, that threat started to fade as a ceasefire took hold and the oil price tumbled (more on that below). In other words, the Bank may have been guarding against a danger that is already easing.

Governor Andrew Bailey called the recent drop in oil encouraging, but warned there was still inflation pressure working its way through the system. Put simply: do not expect the run of cuts everyone predicted in January, but a wave of big rises looks unlikely too. The next decision is 30 July.

Sources: Bank of England, ONS (18 June 2026).

Here is something odd. The Bank held rates this week, yet several big lenders, including NatWest, Barclays, Santander and Halifax, have been quietly cutting their fixed mortgage rates. NatWest has trimmed three times in a fortnight. How does that work if the base rate did not move?

The answer is that fixed mortgages do not follow the Bank’s base rate directly. They follow something called swap rates, which track where the market thinks rates are heading, and those in turn shadow the yield on UK government bonds, known as gilts. When gilt yields fall, fixed mortgages tend to get cheaper.

And gilt yields have fallen. They spiked during the worst of the Middle East conflict (the 10-year yield touched around 5.2%), and as the war premium unwound this month they dropped back toward 4.8%. That is the quiet force making some fixed deals a little cheaper, whatever the Bank did on Thursday.

One thing nudged them back up, though. On Thursday, official figures showed the government borrowed £23.3 billion in May, around £5.4 billion more than the same month last year, and more than expected. When the government borrows more, it has to sell more bonds, and that extra supply tends to push yields (and the cost of fixed mortgages) up. So the bond market giveth, and the bond market taketh away.

What it means for you. On a tracker, this week’s hold means no change. On a fix, the recent direction has been gently down, but it is the bond market doing the work, not the Bank, and it can turn quickly. If your current deal ends in the next six months, it may be worth understanding your options now rather than waiting.

Sources: ONS public sector finances (May 2026), Moneyfacts, lender announcements.

You may have seen headlines this week that UK house prices are jumping. The official figures showed the average UK home rose 3.8% over the year to April, to £270,000, with the North East up a striking 9.9%. Sounds like a boom.

It is not, quite. Most of that annual leap is what economists call a base effect. A year ago, in April 2025, prices fell sharply as a stamp duty change kicked in. Comparing today against that unusually low point makes the annual rise look bigger than the market really feels. Put simply: the number jumped partly because last year’s was oddly low.

Look at the monthly picture and it is softer. Nationwide reported prices actually fell about 0.6% in May, and London is still down 2.1% over the year, its ninth monthly fall in a row. So the honest summary is not a boom. It is a market that is broadly flat to gently cooling, with big regional differences.

While we are on markets, a quick wider check. The UK’s FTSE 100 sits around 10,360, within a few percent of the record high it set back in February. The US S&P 500 is around 7,500, also close to record territory. Stock markets, in other words, have stayed resilient through all the noise.

Which brings us to SpaceX, a neat lesson in zooming out and staying patient. After its record float, the shares raced to a high of about $225, then fell back to around $185 by Friday. A crash, some called it. But it floated at $135, so even after that pullback, anyone in from the start is up roughly 37%. The scary-looking drop and the solid gain are the same week. That is markets for you: the story changes entirely depending on where you start counting.

Sources: ONS / HM Land Registry, Nationwide, London Stock Exchange, Nasdaq (June 2026).

A quick scan of the major coins, because the mood is best read across the board, not from one price.

Zoom out and 2026 has been a down year for most of crypto, with the broad market off roughly 30% since January.

The more interesting development is who is starting to look. Japan’s Government Pension Investment Fund, the largest pension fund in the world with around $1.5 trillion, has been exploring whether to add crypto to its mix, gathering information on Bitcoin alongside assets like gold and infrastructure. To be clear, exploring is not investing, and it has made no firm commitment. But when the most conservative pool of retirement money on the planet is even asking the question, it tells you crypto is being taken more seriously by the mainstream, for better or worse.

Sources: CoinGecko / CoinMarketCap, GPIF disclosures, Pensions & Investments (June 2026).

Crypto assets are high-risk and largely unregulated in the UK. Values are extremely volatile. You could lose all the money you invest. This is not investment advice. Never invest more than you can afford to lose.

Remember the oil spike we kept flagging? It has largely reversed. After the conflict involving Iran pushed Brent crude (the main global benchmark) above $110 a barrel earlier this year, it has fallen back to around $80 as a ceasefire took hold and the Strait of Hormuz, the shipping lane that carries about a fifth of the world’s oil, reopened.

Why you should care: oil sits underneath the price of energy, fuel and transport, so when it falls, it eases the pressure on inflation over time. That is part of why the picture looks a little calmer than it did a month ago.

The usual honest caveat, because this is still moving. The ceasefire is holding but fragile. Talks between the US and Iran were paused at the end of the week, and there were further strikes involving Hezbollah in Lebanon, which is why oil wobbled again on Friday. A lasting peace would help your future bills. A breakdown could push them back up.

On the home front, UK inflation held at 2.8% in May, its lowest in over a year. Good news, but worth reading carefully, which is exactly what this week’s one thing is about.

Sources: ICE Brent, Reuters, ONS CPI (June 2026).

This week’s one thing clears up a confusion almost everyone has.

When you hear “inflation is falling”, it sounds like prices are coming down. They are not. Inflation is the speed at which prices rise. So when inflation falls from, say, 4% to 2.8%, prices are still going up, just more slowly than before.

Think of it like a car. Inflation dropping is the car easing off the accelerator, not hitting the brakes. You are still moving forward, just less quickly. For prices to actually fall, you would need deflation, which is rare and brings its own problems.

Why it matters to you: it explains why your shopping still feels expensive even though the headlines say inflation is down. The price level is not dropping, it is just climbing more gently. So next time a headline celebrates “falling inflation”, you will know exactly what is, and is not, being promised.

Not advice, just the meaning behind a phrase you will hear a lot.

Source: ONS (definition of CPI inflation).

That is your five minutes. If “falling inflation” or “why mortgage rates are moving when the Bank isn’t” has ever confused someone you know, forward this on. It is the quickest favour you can do for their wallet.

One to watch: the oil price and the Middle East ceasefire, which between them are quietly steering your energy bills, your mortgage and the Bank’s next move. The Bank meets again on 30 July, and we will keep translating it for you.

Look after your money. It is on your side more than you think.

Follow us between briefs for mid-week updates and the data points worth knowing:

Thank you,

Ellis

themoneybrief.co.uk

The Money Brief. Not financial advice. The Money Brief provides news and commentary for informational purposes only. We are not FCA-regulated. Crypto and investments can go down as well as up. Always consult a qualified adviser before making financial decisions.

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