The Money Brief #19 - 24 August 2026

Two things happened to money this week, and they point in opposite directions. Your gas bill pushed inflation back up, and the housing market handed buyers their strongest hand in over a decade, while crypto had its best week in three years. The squeeze and the surge, side by side. This week, both halves, honestly. Grab your Monday coffee. Let me translate.

Inflation is rising again. The Consumer Prices Index rose 2.9% in the year to July, up from 2.6% in June, the first increase since March. That much was expected. What surprised us was the reason, and we owe you a correction.

For three editions we called July “the petrol test”: the month the pump-price rebound would show up in the figures. Here is the honest answer: the pumps behaved. Motor fuel actually fell in July, diesel down 8.8p a litre, and transport inflation dropped from 5.7% to 3.6%. What pushed inflation up was not the forecourt. It was the boiler. July was the month Ofgem’s 13% energy price cap rise took effect, and it sent gas prices up 14.7% in a single month, the biggest rise since October 2022, with electricity up 3.6%. Housing and household bills were the largest driver of the whole increase.

The calmer news underneath: core inflation (stripping out energy, food, alcohol and tobacco) was flat at 2.6%, services inflation eased, and food inflation eased to 1.3%. Put simply: this is an energy story, not an everything-story. That distinction matters for what the Bank of England does next.

Now the uncomfortable forward look. The October energy price cap is forecast to rise again, with analysts at Cornwall Insight predicting another increase (exact figure to confirm at the official announcement, which lands around 27 August, days after this email). So the very thing that drove July’s inflation is queued up to do it again this winter.

What it means for you. The Bank sees these figures before its 17 September decision, where three of the nine rate-setters already want a hike. Central banks often “look through” energy-driven inflation, but with the Bank’s own forecast showing a 3.2% peak later this year, rate relief is not close. The savings window stays open; fixed mortgage pricing is unlikely to ease soon. And watch the 27 August cap announcement: it is the number that decides winter bills.

Sources: Office for National Statistics (19 August 2026); Cornwall Insight; Bank of England.

The stalled market we have tracked all summer just tipped into something new. Asking prices of newly listed homes fell 2.0% in August, down £7,360 to £364,999, the largest August drop since 2018, according to Rightmove. And the reason is supply: the number of homes for sale is at a 12-year high for this time of year, which means sellers are competing for buyers, not the other way round. Rightmove has cut its forecast for 2026 asking prices to somewhere between flat and minus -2%.

Their property expert put it plainly: sellers are “recognising the reality of the market and pricing much more competitively from day one.” Regionally, London led the falls at minus -4.4% on the month, while only the North East rose. And some are pressing the advantage hard: buy-to-let investors are reportedly using the conditions to negotiate discounts of up to £50,000 on some homes.

Here is the irony worth sitting with. While homes FOR SALE are at a 12-year high, homes BEING BUILT are falling well short: a major housebuilder warned this week that completions are running below the 1.5 million-homes pledge made by the previous leadership, with the rate set to worsen. Plenty to buy today; not enough being built for tomorrow. (One exception: in Wales, new-build asking prices are up 13% in a year, showing what happens where fresh, energy-efficient stock meets demand.) Meanwhile renters get no such relief: average private rents are still rising, up 3.3% over the year to £1,388 a month.

What it means for you. If you are buying, choice is the widest in over a decade and realistic pricing is being rewarded; if you are selling, pricing sharply from day one is what the data says works. Neither is advice, just what the numbers show. These are asking prices, remember, not sold prices; sold-price data has been flat all year.

Sources: Rightmove (August 2026); Office for National Statistics (July 2026); This is Money.

Time for our regular Spotlight: the big markets across four timeframes, because the timeframe you choose decides the story you tell. All figures as at last week’s close. “This year” means since 1 January 2026; peaks are labelled where used. Silver, last week’s cautionary tale, hands the guest seat to oil, which has driven more of your bills this year than anything else.

Two lines deserve a sentence each. Bitcoin: about $76,500 at the time of writing, up 23% in a month, still down 11% this year. The week’s biggest riser is also still a faller on the year, the Spotlight lesson living in one row (more in Crypto Corner below). And oil takes the guest seat because of where it sits in your life: when Brent moves, your petrol, your energy bills and eventually the inflation number move with it.

Now the week of the story stock. Two extraordinary movers: Moderna’s shares soared around 177% after a successful trial of its experimental skin-cancer vaccine, and Chinese robotics firm Unitree jumped roughly 629% on its Shanghai stock market debut. Marvellous headlines, and a useful lesson that is not “buy biotech.” Single stocks can double, or halve, on one announcement. That is why your workplace pension spreads your money across hundreds of companies: so that no single headline, wonderful or terrible, decides your retirement. Diversification feels boring in weeks like this. Boring is the design. As always: a picture, not a nudge, and past performance guarantees nothing.

Sources: London Stock Exchange; LBMA; Bank of England; Reuters; company filings.

We reported the fall. Now we report the rise, and then we zoom out, because that is the deal.

After weeks stuck under $65,000, the whole crypto market broke out last week, in its best stretch since 2023. Bitcoin reached about $77,300 on Friday (and briefly near $80,000), up roughly 23% in five days, though at the time of writing it has eased back to around $76,500 as some of the gains unwind. The rally was broad, not just Bitcoin:

The total crypto market reached about $2.6 trillion, up more than $400 billion in a week, and the market’s own fear-and-greed gauge more than doubled, from 34 (“fear”) to 72 (“greed”). A note on all these figures: crypto moves fast, and these are as at the time of writing, so treat them as a snapshot, not a live price.

Why? Four drivers landed almost at once. First, and least flashy: the US Treasury said it will double its buybacks of long-dated government bonds from September, which markets read as quiet support for the financial system; long-term yields fell, the dollar hit a three-month low, and assets priced against the dollar, crypto included, rose. Second, the White House hosted crypto executives and the President publicly pushed the Senate to pass the CLARITY Act, the bill deciding which regulator oversees which digital asset. Third, the SEC proposed new rules including a “safe harbor” for some tokens. And fourth, the move fed itself: a record $2.7 billion of bets against crypto were forcibly closed, the biggest wave of “short liquidations” on record.

That last one is this week’s explainer, because it explains the speed. A “short” is a bet that a price will fall: a trader borrows and sells an asset, planning to buy it back cheaper. If the price RISES instead, they must buy it back quickly at the higher price to cap their losses, and that forced buying pushes the price higher still, which squeezes the next short, and so on. A rally can feed itself for a while. Which is exactly why the size of a move is not proof of its durability.

And now the zoom-out, the same discipline we apply to everything: even after the best week in three years, Bitcoin is still down around 11% for 2026, and about 39% below its October 2025 peak of $126,198. Up 23% in a month, down 11% on the year, up 72% over five years: the same asset, three true stories. You know by now why we show you all three. One date for the diary: from 30 September, UK crypto firms can begin applying to the FCA under the new rulebook.

Sources: CoinMarketCap; Bloomberg; CoinDesk; US Treasury; SEC; FCA.

Three numbers landed on the Chancellor’s desk this week, and none of them make the autumn Budget easier.

We do not do party politics here, so the honest framing is this: this is the arithmetic any Chancellor would face going into this Budget: weaker growth (last week’s 0.3% warning), a softer jobs market, gloomier households, and borrowing running ahead of plan. Every one of those makes the “where does the money come from” question louder. We will not speculate on which taxes move; we will read the Budget line by line when it comes. One genuine counterweight for the diary: the State Pension is confirmed to rise next spring under the triple lock (exact figure set by the autumn data).

Sources: Office for National Statistics; GfK; The Telegraph.

More than 22 million people in Britain hold Premium Bonds, and this week NS&I made them more interesting: the prize-fund rate rises to 4.35%, with twelve more £100,000 prizes every month. Most holders may not know exactly how they actually work. Two minutes, and you will be able to.

What they are: a savings product from NS&I, the government’s own savings bank. You buy bonds at £1 each (minimum £25, maximum £50,000). Instead of paying interest, every bond you hold enters a monthly prize draw, with tax-free prizes from £25 up to two £1 million jackpots. Your money is 100% Treasury-backed and you can withdraw it at any time.

The crucial distinction: that 4.35% is the PRIZE-FUND rate, the average paid out across all prizes. It is not interest, and nobody is guaranteed it. The odds per £1 bond are roughly 22,000 to 1 each month. With a large holding and average luck, your winnings tend toward that rate over time. With a small holding, luck dominates: most people holding £100 win nothing at all in a typical year.

Why people hold them anyway: prizes are tax-free, which matters if you are a higher-rate taxpayer who has used up your personal savings allowance; the money is as safe as money gets; and there is the small monthly thrill of maybe. The honest other side: a fixed-rate account pays guaranteed interest (NS&I’s own fixed deals pay up to 4.75%, and banks compete around that), so with below-average luck, bonds pay you less than certainty would have. Put simply: Premium Bonds trade certainty for chance, tax-free. Whether that trade suits you depends on your tax position, your need for access, and your temperament. That is yours to weigh, not ours to call.

And the wider point while savings rates stay high: whether to lock money into a fix, hold easy-access, or hold bonds is really a question about when you will need the money and what you pay tax on. Ten minutes comparing those three against your own answer is worth more than any best-buy table.

Sources: NS&I (August 2026); MoneySavingExpert.

That is your five minutes on the week of the squeeze and the surge.

If someone you know holds Premium Bonds and has never known how they work, forward them this. Clear beats lucky.

The diary: the October energy price cap is announced around 27 August, the number that decides winter bills. The Bank’s next rate decision is 17 September. And behind everything, the autumn Budget, where the Chancellor’s in-tray finally gets answered. We will be across all of it.

Look after your money. It is on your side more than you think.

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Thank you,

Ellis

themoneybrief.co.uk

The Money Brief. Not financial advice. The Money Brief provides news and commentary for informational purposes only. We are not FCA-regulated. Crypto and investments can go down as well as up. Always consult a qualified adviser before making financial decisions.

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