Three big things happened this week that could affect your money. Inflation jumped. Mortgage rates dropped. And your pension probably grew. The catch? Only one of those is straightforwardly good news. Let me explain.
The Big Story
March's inflation data is in, and it's not pretty. CPI (the main measure of how fast prices are rising) hit 3.3%, up from 3% in February. To put that in context — just 3-4 months ago, inflation was expected to fall to 2% this year. It's now predicted to hit 4% by the end of 2026. The Iran war has changed the picture completely, pushing up the cost of energy, fuel, and imported goods:
At the Pumps (Fuel) – petrol rose 8.9p per litre in March alone. Transport costs are now 4.7% higher than a year ago. That full tank that used to sting a little now properly hurts.
Your Energy Bill – household energy costs rose 4.3% over the past year. If you're not locked into a fixed deal, it could be worth looking at what's available — particularly as reports suggest the existing UK energy price cap may end by 1st July 2026, which could mean further rises.
At the Supermarket – food prices are up 3.7% compared to March last year. That weekly shop isn't getting any lighter.
If you've been feeling like your money doesn't stretch as far as it used to — you're right. It doesn't. And the outlook suggests it could get tougher before it gets easier.
Rates & Mortgages
Some welcome news on mortgages this week – but read the small print. Nationwide led a host of big banks dropping mortgage rates up to 0.25%. But, don’t be fooled by this short-term reprieve – largely driven by positive discussions between leaders to cool the war in the Middle East. Mortgage rates are still significantly higher than 3 months ago. Let’s compare:
The average 2 year fixed rate mortgage = 5.84% up from 4.83% before the war.
The average 5 year fixed rate mortgage = 5.75% up from 4.95%.
A 1% increase in mortgage interest on the average home price in the UK can increase your monthly payment by around £200. Over 1 million households are expected to reach the end of their fixed rate deals between April & September. If you are one of those homeowners, it could be worth understanding how your current deal compares – as the BoE is expected to raise the base rate 2 times by the end of 2026. Speaking to a fee-free mortgage broker is a good starting point.
Markets & Pensions
Positive news came for private pension contributors as the S&P500 (an index that tracks the top 500 companies by market value) and other global funds grew to new all-time highs this week. So if you have a personal or company pension, you will most likely have seen an increase in your overall pension pot. However, the Iran war continues to cause global uncertainty & this week the deputy Bank of England governor raised concerns that global stock markets were too high and corrections may follow.
Historically, pension growth tends to reward patience and consistency, short term headlines rarely impact long-term performance.
Crypto Corner
Crypto markets have also seen growth. Bitcoin began the week around $74,500, before rallying to almost $80,000, current prices have levelled at $78,290 up almost 4.5% for the week. As ever if you are invested in this space stay vigilant, prices remain impacted by wider markets and headlines, and this is the 3rd time over recent months bitcoin has failed to breach that $80k milestone. Other large market cap price movers in crypto this week:
Ethereum = $2,370 (Up 3.10%)
XRP = $1.43 (Up 0.93%)
BNB = $636 (Up 2.12%)
Crypto assets are high-risk and largely unregulated in the UK. Values are extremely volatile — you could lose all the money you invest. This is not investment advice.
Economy & Cost of Living
People are worried and the data backs it up. The GfK Consumer Confidence Index (A measure of people’s attitudes and feelings towards the UK economy & financial household circumstances) dropped to -25 in April, it’s the largest decline in a year, and the lowest level since October 2023. Recent consumer surveys reported 29% of consumers are only spending on essentials, up from 25% at the start of 2026, with 45% of consumers saying they are being more frugal with spending than ever. If you have been cutting back on your spending, you are not alone, almost a third of the country is doing the same thing.
One Thing to Know
We have talked a lot in the last two newsletters about how the Bank of England base rate impacts you, whether it be your mortgage interest rate, car loans, savings rates. Next week on Thursday 30th April 2026 the Bank of England is due to announce its next rate decisions. It is highly expected to retain its existing 3.75% rate, but forecasts are never guaranteed and all the data points we have discussed mean rate rises may be on the horizon. Any further signals of rises that may impact you, we will monitor closely & give you an update on next week’s decision in the next Brief.
Thank you for reading…
That's your brief for this week. If it helped you understand even one thing that felt confusing before, I've done my job. Please forward this to someone who'd find it useful — and I'll see you next Monday.
Ellis
The Money Brief. Not financial advice. The Money Brief provides news and commentary for informational purposes only. We are not FCA-regulated. Crypto and investments can go down as well as up. Always consult a qualified adviser before making financial decisions.