The Money Brief #26 - 12 October 2026

Last week we gave you one number, 6%, and said it would reach your mortgage, your pension and the Budget. This week confirmed it. The 30-year gilt went back through 6%, the average fixed mortgage rate touched 6% for the first time since 2023, the number of sub-5% deals on the market fell from 1,494 to nine, and Cornwall Insight put January's energy cap 16% higher. Different pages of the same story, and this edition takes them in order. Grab your Monday coffee.

At the start of September there were 1,494 fixed-rate mortgages on the market at under 5%. By 6 October there were nine. That is Moneyfacts' count, reported by Money to the Masses, and it is the cleanest single number for what the gilt market has done to household borrowing this autumn.

Where the averages are

What the best deals did in one month

Moneyfacts best-buy rates (6 October 2026). Monthly figures are our arithmetic on a £250,000 repayment mortgage over 25 years and are illustrative.

Why, in one paragraph

Fixed mortgages are priced off swap rates, which follow gilt yields, and gilts went to new highs again this week: the 30-year back through 6.04% on Wednesday, its highest since January 1998, and the 10-year to 5.53% on Thursday, a 19-year high (Reuters). The causes have not changed: oil above $100; the Bank of England signalling it is closer to raising than cutting (Chief Economist Huw Pill and Megan Greene both spoke this week about wage growth keeping inflation up); and the Budget. On that last one, the Chancellor spent Wednesday meeting the economists of the banks that buy gilts at auction, and HM Treasury said afterwards that he "emphasised the importance of fiscal credibility." He was meeting them because of what they are forecasting: Bank of America's UK economists, for one, now estimate the Budget will add £15 billion to UK borrowing this year and next. That is the kind of meeting you hold when the people lending the money are setting the terms.

If your fix ends soon: the three things that are actually in your control

What it means for you. The average fix went from 4.83% in February to 6% in October, which on £250,000 over 25 years is £1,437 then and £1,611 now: £174 a month, for the same house. If that is you this year, the help that costs nothing is a broker (most are paid by the lender) and MoneyHelper's mortgage calculators; if the sums do not work at all, StepChange will talk to you before it becomes arrears, not after.

Sources: Moneyfacts via Money to the Masses (6 October 2026); Reuters (7 October 2026); Trading Economics (9 October 2026); Bank of America via Reuters (7 October 2026); HM Treasury (7 October 2026).

Two housing reports this week, and for once they agree: nothing is moving.

RICS' Tarrant Parsons put the cause in one line: "a renewed rise in interest rate expectations has created a fresh headwind for the housing market." The agents quoted add a second one: the Budget. Amy Reynolds of Antony Roberts: "uncertainty around potential tax changes is making some buyers and sellers sit on their hands." Knight Frank's Tom Bill expects "downward price pressure" through the rest of the year.

Put the two together with the Big Story. A market where the typical home costs 7.0 times the typical salary (our table from last week), the average two-year fix is 5.98% (which on our standard £250,000 over 25 years is £1,608 a month, against £1,437 at February's 4.83%), and nobody knows whether the stamp duty bands or reliefs will change on 28 October, is a market that waits. One Thing To Know this week is the tax on buying a home, stamp duty and Welsh Land Transaction Tax side by side, because the waiting is partly about that.

What it means for you. If you are selling, the RICS numbers say more homes are arriving than buyers, which is a pricing conversation to have with your agent now rather than in December. If you are buying, the same numbers say the people across the table are more motivated than they were in spring. Neither is a forecast; both are in the data.

Sources: Lloyds Banking Group house price index (8 October 2026); RICS UK Residential Market Survey, September 2026 (8 October 2026); Estate Agent Today (8 October 2026).

Our regular Spotlight: the big markets across four timeframes, because the timeframe you choose decides the story you tell. Figures are as at Friday's close. "This year" means since the first trading day of January; "5 years" is rolling, the same week five years earlier. Oil and the pound keep their seats.

*Bitcoin at time of writing, Saturday; it trades through the weekend. Gilt moves are in percentage points (pp), not percent. Euro row is the inverse of the euro-pound rate.

Three lines deserve a sentence. The S&P 500 is within reach of a record again, up 2.9% on the month on earnings optimism, while the FTSE is flat on the month; the gap is AI and energy weightings, and it is why a UK pension in a global tracker had a better month than the FTSE suggests. The 10-year gilt touched 5.53% on Thursday before easing to 5.42% as oil came off; the 30-year closed at 5.94% having been through 6% again on Wednesday. And the pound is at €1.183, its best this year, because the euro area is not pricing the rate rises we are; the same reason sterling sits near a three-month low against the dollar.

The world this week, briefly

The IMF's annual meetings run from Monday. Its managing director, Kristalina Georgieva, has already said what she will say: "winter is coming," global debt is "higher than after World War II," energy prices will "push inflation even higher," and central banks will have to "tighten their belts." In the US, consumer sentiment fell to 46.3 on Friday, near May's record low, with households expecting 4.7% inflation over the next year (University of Michigan). The read-across is the one we keep making: the UK borrows in the same market as everyone else, and that market is nervous.

The pension angle

With the 30-year gilt back near 6%, annuity rates (the guaranteed income for life an insurer pays for a pension pot) stay at the 18-year high we reported last week. The flip side also holds: default workplace funds that shift towards bonds before retirement have had a poor fortnight. Both are the same number; which one you feel depends on whether you are buying income or holding bonds.

What it means for you. As always with the Spotlight: a picture, not a nudge, and past performance guarantees nothing.

Sources: Trading Economics (9 October 2026); IMF via Semafor (22 September 2026); University of Michigan (9 October 2026).

Two weeks ago the whole crypto market was worth $2.91 trillion. On Saturday it was $2.80 trillion, 3.8% smaller. Here is the week in the numbers that matter beyond the Bitcoin price:

TokenPost (10 October 2026); CoinGlass via CryptoTicker (8 October 2026); Farside Investors (9 October 2026).

The "why" is the same as the bond market's: the Fed's minutes on Wednesday said "most participants expect another hike to be appropriate before year-end," Treasury yields rose, and leveraged crypto bets were sold to meet margin calls, which is what a $1 billion liquidation day is. Put simply: when the cost of money goes up, the things people bought with borrowed money go down first. It happened on the same day the gilt market set its record.

The rest of the board

Trading Economics crypto board, Saturday 10 October 2026.

A company that is mostly a pile of XRP

On Monday a company called Evernorth is due to start trading on Nasdaq. It holds about 473 million XRP (roughly $670 million at Saturday's price) plus $300 million in cash, after completing a merger with a listed shell company, and it is Ripple-linked. It is the latest "crypto treasury company": a listed business whose main asset is a coin, so that investors who cannot or will not hold the coin directly can buy shares instead. MicroStrategy did it with Bitcoin and became worth far more than its Bitcoin. Three things to know, because these keep appearing. The shares can trade above or below the value of the coins inside, sometimes by a lot. The company usually raises money by issuing more shares to buy more coins, which only works while the shares trade at a premium. And when the coin falls, the shares tend to fall further, because the company often carries debt as well. We will report what it does; we will not be telling you what to do about it.

The UK angle: none directly. Evernorth is a US listing, and the FCA's crypto regime, which opened for applications a fortnight ago, covers firms serving UK customers, not US shares that happen to hold coins.

Sources: TokenPost (10 October 2026); CoinGlass (8 October 2026); Farside Investors (9 October 2026); Federal Reserve minutes (7 October 2026); Trading Economics (10 October 2026); CoinSpectator (10 October 2026).

January energy: the forecasts revisited

Three weeks ago we tabled three forecasts for January's cap, with Cornwall Insight the lowest at 9%. Cornwall has now updated: £1,999 a year, up 16%, up £276, the largest rise since January 2023. Here is the table again with the new number in it:

Monthly figures are the annual cap divided by twelve; winter usage runs above the average. Ofgem confirms January's cap on 25 November.

Cornwall's Dr Craig Lowry: "these prices are going to hit households hard," and "the effects of the conflict could be with us for many more months." The honest range is now £276 to £429 a year more from January, narrower than three weeks ago and higher at the bottom end. For April, three suppliers have published their own forecasts: British Gas £2,035, EDF £2,065, E.ON Next £2,082, which would be a second rise rather than a spring fall.

Five years of prices, in one number

The Resolution Foundation added up the cost-of-living years on Thursday. Prices in August were nearly 30% higher than in July 2021, which it calls "13 years' worth of inflation in five." For a typical working-age household that leaves them £2,900 a year (7.9%) worse off in 2026-27 than if inflation had run at 2%. Energy and food were a quarter of the rise. The figures underneath are the ones to hold onto: 18% of households in the poorer half were behind on a priority bill by March, up from 10% in 2020; energy suppliers are owed £5 billion, more than triple 2018 in real terms; 1.7 million more households said they could not keep warm. James Smith, the foundation's chief economist, calls it an income shock "similar in scale across the distribution" but felt hardest where essentials are a bigger share of spending.

Jobs: two warnings and the data behind them

Set against the ONS data we covered in #23, payrolls down 26,000 in August and the fastest fall in nine months, these are not isolated. The next labour market release is Tuesday, and it is the last before the Budget.

The tax base, briefly

You will have seen the "£120 billion of billionaires leave Britain" headline. The number is a Bloomberg Billionaires Index tally of a little over a dozen named individuals who have changed tax residence since the election, including Lakshmi Mittal and the hedge fund founder Chris Rokos, who paid £330 million in tax in 2025. Two things are true at once. A dozen people is not an exodus, and the wider "millionaire exodus" claims of the past two years were walked back by their own author (Tax Justice Network). But the UK's tax base is concentrated: HMRC's own figures show the top 1% of taxpayers pay 27% of all income tax, and capital gains receipts hit a record £22 billion last year, so a handful of departures at the very top does show up in the receipts the Chancellor is counting on. We report the arithmetic; the politics is for others.

What it means for you. January's bill is now a range of £23 to £36 a month more; the Resolution Foundation's £2,900 is the five years that got you here; and the jobs warnings are the next risk. If money is tight now, the help is free and not a last resort: StepChange and Citizens Advice for debt and arrears, MoneyHelper for the numbers, the Priority Services Register if you are vulnerable and worried about winter energy, and your supplier's hardship fund, which the big ones run and few people ask about.

Sources: Cornwall Insight via Money to the Masses (2 October 2026); Ofgem; Bank of England (17 September 2026); MoneySavingExpert; Resolution Foundation (8 October 2026); Royal Mail via ITV News (7 October 2026); UKHospitality (8 October 2026); Office for National Statistics (15 September 2026); Bloomberg Billionaires Index via The National (5 October 2026); Tax Justice Network; HMRC Income Tax liabilities statistics (15 July 2026).

Buy a home in England or Northern Ireland and you pay Stamp Duty Land Tax, the one everyone calls stamp duty. Buy one in Wales and you pay Land Transaction Tax, or LTT, which the Welsh Government has set since 2018. They work the same way and arrive at different numbers, sometimes very different, so here are both, side by side. Scotland has a third version (Land and Buildings Transaction Tax) with its own bands.

The word that matters in both is portion. Like income tax, you pay each rate only on the slice of the price inside that band, never on the whole price. A £300,000 home in England is not taxed at 5%; it is taxed at 0% on the first £125,000, 2% on the next £125,000 and 5% on the last £50,000.

HMRC, residential rates for England and Northern Ireland. Buying an additional property (a second home or a buy-to-let) adds 5 percentage points to every band.

Welsh Revenue Authority, main residential rates. Wales has no first-time buyer relief; instead the 0% band is £100,000 wider than England's, for everyone. Additional properties use a separate higher-rate table that starts at 5% on the first £180,000 and climbs to 17%.

So the two systems make different bets. England gives first-time buyers a big relief and starts taxing movers early, at £125,000. Wales gives nobody a relief, starts later, at £225,000, and then charges a higher rate (6% against 2% or 5%) once you are over the line. Which one costs you less depends entirely on the price.

Our arithmetic on the bands above; main residence only. Average prices from the UK House Price Index, July 2026 (Wales £215,000; Cardiff £272,252).

Three things fall out of that table. First, at the average Welsh home price nobody pays anything on either side of the border, and in Wales that holds for movers too, which is the point of the wider 0% band. Second, for a mover the crossover is £350,000: below it, the Welsh bill is smaller; above it, the 6% and 7.5% bands overtake England's 5% and the gap widens quickly, to £4,250 more at £550,000. Third, for a first-time buyer Wales is more expensive at every price above £225,000, because the relief that makes a £300,000 purchase free in England does not exist in Wales: the same home costs £4,500 in tax in Cardiff and £0 in Bristol.

The behaviour is the same in both countries. The tax is a lump sum, paid on completion, on top of the deposit, the legal fees and the removal van, which is why people who want to downsize or trade up often do not: £11,250 to move to a £425,000 home in England, or £12,375 in Wales, is a reason to stay put, and "stay put" is what the RICS survey is measuring. And England's cliff at £500,000, where first-time buyer relief vanishes entirely rather than tapering, is why so many listings sit at £499,950.

Stamp duty raises a lot of money and most economists dislike it, which is an unusual combination.

It raises a lot because it is paid in one lump sum, by people who have just borrowed heavily and cannot avoid it. Economists dislike it because it taxes moving rather than owning. Every move is taxed, so people downsize less, which keeps family homes off the market, and they move for work less, which the wider economy pays for.

That is why it was in the summer rumours. In July, reports suggested the Budget could replace stamp duty and council tax with a single annual property tax. The Prime Minister, Andy Burnham, was asked on 27 July whether stamp duty would be changed or scrapped, and told Sky News: "Yes, I can say that quite clearly. That won't be happening." Downing Street added that scrapping either tax was not under active consideration (Money to the Masses, 28 July).

So the big overhaul is off the table for 28 October, in the Prime Minister's own words. Smaller changes to bands or reliefs have not been ruled out, and will not be known until the day. If one comes, the date it takes effect matters more than the headline: the last change was announced in October 2024 and took effect the following April, and the gap between the two produced a rush to complete before the deadline.

One thing the 28 October Budget cannot do is change LTT. That is devolved, so any change to the Welsh bands comes from the Welsh Government's own budget, which is normally set out in the winter. The last change, to the higher rates for additional properties, was announced and took effect on the same day in December 2024, so Wales does not always give the run-up that England does.

Why it matters to you. If you are buying or selling this autumn, the bands above are the only facts; the rumours are not. Two things worth keeping in your head: every rate applies to a slice, not the whole, and the border matters, because the same £300,000 first home is £0 in tax on one side and £4,500 on the other. MoneyHelper's stamp duty calculator does the arithmetic for any price and any nation.

Sources: HMRC, Stamp Duty Land Tax rates (2026/27); Welsh Revenue Authority and Welsh Government, Land Transaction Tax rates and bands; Revenue Scotland; HM Land Registry, UK House Price Index, July 2026 (Wales); RICS (8 October 2026); Sky News (27 July 2026); Money to the Masses (28 July 2026); HM Treasury, Autumn Budget 2024.

That is your five minutes on the week last week's number did what we said it would.

If someone you know has a fix ending before spring, forward them the Big Story: the three things in their control are the bit nobody tells them. If they are a first-time buyer, the stamp duty and LTT tables are the bit nobody explains, especially the border.

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Ellis

themoneybrief.co.uk

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